Sunday 4 March 2018

Oscars 2018: 'The Shape of Water' wins best picture at the Academy Awards

The Shape of Water has won the Oscar for best picture at the 90th Academy Awards defeating strong competition from Get Out Lady Bird and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri in what had been considered the closest Oscar race in many years. The award was presented by Warren Beatty and Faye Dunaway who had been involved in last year s mix-up over La La Land and Moonlight. Acknowledging the fiasco in 2017 Beatty said: It s so nice seeing you again ; Dunaway added: Presenting is lovelier second time around. On receiving the award del Toro said: I want to dedicate this to the young film-makers; the youth who are showing us how things are done. The cold war-set fantasy thriller stars Sally Hawkins as a mute cleaning woman who discovers a bizarre aquatic-human hybrid in a tank at a secret government lab and helps it escape. Directed by Guillermo del Toro it led to the Mexican film-maker s first nomination for best picture though Del Toro was also nominated in 2007 for best original screenplay and best foreign language film for Pan s Labyrinth. The Shape of Water review an operatic plunge into Guillermo del Toro s immersive cinema Read more Having led the nominations list with 13 The Shape http://studyo81.org/user/kfrecharge/ of Water had been considered a strong candidate for the best picture Oscar and it also won best film at the Critics Choice awards and the Producers Guild awards. However it had lost out to Three Billboards at both the Golden Globes and the Baftas. The film s success has come in spite of it being the subject of a plagiarism controversy in recent weeks. After the nominations were announced the family of late playwright Paul Zindel launched legal action over glaring similarities between The Shape of Water and Zindel s 1969 play Let Me Hear You Whisper. The film s studio Fox Searchlight has denied the allegations. Topics Oscars 2018 Oscars The Shape of Water Guillermo del Toro Sally Hawkins Awards and prizes news Share on Facebook Share on Twitter Share via Email Share on LinkedIn Share on Pinterest Share on Google Share on WhatsApp Share on Messenger Reuse this content
Apparently Frances McDormand just found out about what an inclusion rider is last week which means we re all forgiven for not knowing what it meant: ABC News (@ABC) Best Actress winner Frances McDormand says she just found out about inclusion riders last week. We re not going back she said. It changes now and I think the inclusion rider will have something to do with that. Power in rules. https://t.co/6URV9Fbp52 #Oscars pic.twitter.com/X0VqCOgYmM March 5 2018
And the SINNER is... Gwynnie s seat-squirming acceptance speech? Joan Crawford s jaw-dropping sabotage? Beatty and Dunaway s envelope mix-up? As we await tonight s show Event nominates the winners losers and most shameless schmoozers from 90 years of the Oscars... The most desperateAnyone who enjoyed the BBC2 drama Feud won t be surprised by this one. Step forward Joan Crawford who in 1963 was outraged that Bette Davis her co-star in What Ever Happened To Baby Jane? was hot favourite to win Best Actress while she hadn t even been nominated. Not only did Crawford start a behind-the-scenes campaign to persuade Academy members to vote for anyone but Davis she then volunteered to be a stand-in for any nominees who couldn t be there on the night. So when Anne Bancroft emerged as the Best Actress winner for The Miracle Worker the audience watched as a gloating Crawford walked up to accept the award leaving a stunned Davis in her seat. Who would ve guessed that exactly 40 years after this classic morning-after portrait Faye Dunaway would play a starring role in the biggest Oscars debacle ever - see below! Faye Dunaway and Warren Beatty at the 89th Academy Awards. In a hilarious blunder the pair announced that the award had gone to La La Land when Moonlight was the actual winner Most Ridiculous Political StuntDepending on your point of view Marlon Brando was either one of the finest screen actors ever to have lived or the founding father of incomprehensible mumblecore acting. In 1973 he caused Academy outrage when he sent Californian Apache Sacheen Littlefeather to decline the Best Actor award he d just won for The Godfather. This she politely explained was Brando s protest against Hollywood s depiction of Native Americans. Her brief speech she was limited to just 60 seconds was met with a mix of boos and applause by the audience while backstage afterwards she treated press to a 15-page speech Brando had prepared.Worst loserPart of the fun of Oscar night is the sight of the losers forcing a rictus smile as they watch the delighted winner make their way to the stage. So who can t love Ellen Burstyn who in 1974 had been nominated for The Exorcist and then had to watch as an absent Glenda Jackson won her second Best Actress Oscar in three years for A Touch Of Class. What a surprise... mouthed Burstyn sarcastically on camera. But she didn t have to sulk for too long she won the same award a year later for Alice Doesn t Live Here Anymore. Leonardo DiCaprio with Oscar-winner Emma Stone last year Right: Sacheen Littlefeather refuses the Academy Award for Best Actor on behalf of Marlon Brando in 1973; Left: Gregory Peck Sophia Loren Joan Crawford and Maximilian Schell backstage in 1963 Right: Jennifer Lawrence takes a tumble in 2013; Left: Elizabeth Taylor in 1961Sympathy VoteIf there s one thing that sentimental Academy voters like more than a film star it s a dead or dying film star which probably explains Elizabeth Taylor s surprise win in 1961 for Butterfield 8. In the run-up to the awards she d been in hospital with life-threatening pneumonia. However she recovered enough to make a breathy acceptance speech leaving fellow nominee Shirley MacLaine who d been nominated for The Apartment to joke that she had lost out to a tracheotomy . RELATED ARTICLES Previous 1 Next Yes This Morning s Eamonn Holmes tells Event I know my big... Power couple! Olivia Wilde charms in long white dress while... Share this article Share The Close-Run ThingKatharine Hepburn holds the record for winning four acting Oscars but the reclusive star never turned up in person to collect any of them. In 1969 she became part of Oscar history again when she for The Lion In Winter and Barbra Streisand for Funny Girl tied for the Best Actress award.The Best TripAs intrepid archer Katniss Everdeen in the Hunger Games films Jennifer Lawrence is fleet of foot and sure of shot. But distinctly less so when it comes to accepting awards. In 2013 she took a memorable tumble as she made her way up the stairs to accept her Best Actress award for Silver Linings Playbook blaming her fall on her failure to master the kick walk kick walk her stylist had recommended to master her frothy Dior gown. A year later she tripped again as she reached the Oscars famous red carpet. The good news is she s not nominated this year so should be safe. Right: Cher caused a stir with this outfit in 1988; Left: Joan Fontaine in 1942 Steven Spielberg Tom Hanks and Elton John at the 65th Annual Academy Awards in 1993 British film legend David Niven didn t bat an eyelid when a moustachioed streaker ran on stage while he was presenting the award for Best Picture at the 1974Most Indiscreet SpeechIn the Nineties Tom Hanks won consecutive Best Actor Oscars first for the Aids-era drama Philadelphia and then for Forrest Gump. But it was during this first acceptance speech that he caused a stir by outing his drama teacher Rawley Farnsworth who had previously kept his sexuality a secret. Four years later Hanks s slip would inspire the comedy In & Out.Worst Family FeudIn 1942 feuding sisters Olivia de Havilland and Joan Fontaine both found themselves nominated for Best Actress de Havilland for Hold Back The Dawn and Fontaine for the Hitchcock thriller Suspicion. Fontaine duly won which might explain why five years later after winning the Oscar herself this time for To Each His Own de Havilland gave her younger sister the cold shoulder when she came over to congratulate her.Most Outrageous OutfitThirty years on most of us can still remember the dress that Cher wore to the 1988 Oscars. Designed by Bob Mackie the gown was little more than a bra-top and some modesty-preserving sequins held together by a tight tube of sheer flesh-revealing navel-exposing fabric. Such is the excitement it caused it is often forgotten that Cher won Best Actress for Moonstruck that year.Most Blatant SnubIn 1965 My Fair Lady won eight of the 12 categories in which it had been nominated. But while Rex Harrison walked away with Best Actor there was nothing for co-star Audrey Hepburn not even a nomination. Apparently Academy voters couldn t forgive the fact that Hepburn had been cast in the role of Eliza Doolittle rather than Julie Andrews who had created the role on Broadway which they made quite clear when the practically perfect Andrews won Best Actress for Mary Poppins that year.Keeping Cool Under FireBritish film legend David Niven didn t bat an eyelid when a moustachioed streaker ran on stage while he was presenting the award for Best Picture at the 1974 ceremony. Famous for his wit the always immaculately turned-out Niven brought the house down with his improvised one-liner: The only laugh that man will ever get in his life is by stripping off and showing his shortcomings. Marilyn Monroe in 1951. Though an enduring Hollywood icon her career was untroubled by even a nomination Halle Berry celebrates as she holds her Oscar for Best Actress in 2002 Left: Judi Dench in 1999. Right: Gwyneth Paltrow s famous speech 1999 Meryl Streep and Daniel Day-Lewis both winners in 2013Worst OversightMarilyn Monroe is one of Hollywood s most enduring icons but possibly not the greatest actress which perhaps explains why her career was untroubled by even a nomination. But more illustrious acting careers have never been topped with the ultimate accolade Glenn Close has been nominated six times but never won while Richard Burton and Peter O Toole were nominated seven and eight times respectively. At least the Academy gave O Toole an honourary Oscar ten years before he died. Even then he initially turned it down pleading for more time to win the lovely bugger outright .Blink and You ll Miss ItIt s hard to believe but some winning performances have been shorter than the acceptance speeches you ll hear tonight. The distinguished stage actress Beatrice Straight who played William Holden s put-upon wife in Network was on screen for little more than five minutes but still won the Oscar for Best Supporting Actress in 1977. Dame Judi Dench had to work a little harder for the same award in 1999 putting in just over eight minutes as Elizabeth I in Shakespeare In Love.All Time Low(e)Lady Gaga s Sound Of Music tribute at the 2015 awards may have been dodgy but Rob Lowe s version of Proud Mary in which he sang and danced with Snow White for the 1989 Awards is considered the worst musical opening in Academy history. Particularly as Lowe had been involved with a sex-tape scandal involving a 16-year-old girl the year before.The Party-PoopersDespite being nominated 24 times as writer director or actor Woody Allen is a reliable no-show at the awards although he did turn up in 2002 to pay tribute to his home city of New York after 9/11. Neither four-times winner Katharine Hepburn nor double winner Glenda Jackson were present the years they won although they subsequently made their peace with the Academy by agreeing to present awards.Most Embarrassing SpeechEven by the lachrymose standards of all Oscar nights Gwyneth Paltrow s unforgettable speech at the 1999 awards was exceptional. She began crying the moment her name was announced she won for her undeniably lovely performance in Shakespeare In Love and never really stopped blubbing her way through a speech in which she thanked everyone from the grandfather to her agent. Mind you for sheer toe-curling efforts Sally Field s I guess this proves you like me right now you really like me as she won Best Actress for Places In The Heart in 1985 takes a lot of beating.Trying Too Hard...Sigourney Weaver went home from the 1989 Oscars empty-handed even though she had been nominated for Best Actress for Gorillas In The Mist and Best Supporting Actress for Working Girl. Oscar tradition dictated that she should have gone home with at least one gong but many academy members were reportedly furious at the blatant campaigning for the star which included mail-outs of posters mugs and T-shirts. Director Rob Reiner joked: I have in my house more colour reproductions of Sigourney Weaver and a beautiful gorilla than I need. Biggest blunderOne year on and it s still difficult to believe that movie legends Warren Beatty and Faye Dunaway were responsible for this. Dunaway Event s cover star seen in a photo taken by Terry O Neill (who went on to marry her) the morning after her Oscar win in 1977 for Network could scarcely believe that 40 years later she d be handing out the Oscar for Best Picture to the wrong film. In chaotic scenes a confused-looking Beatty gave the envelope to Dunaway who announced that the award had gone to La La Land when Moonlight was the actual winner. The mistake was later blamed on vote-counters from PwC who had got distracted by the glamorous goings-on backstage and handed Beatty the wrong envelope.
The Shape of Water won best picture and Guillermo del Toro won best director for the film. Frances McDormand won best actress for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri. Gary Oldman won best actor for Darkest Hour. Allison Janney won best supporting actress. Sam Rockwell won best supporting actor. See photos from the red carpet. Read a transcript of Jimmy Kimmel s opening monologue. Ashley Judd Salma Hayek and Annabella Sciorra three of Harvey Weinstein s accusers took the stage and introduced a segment highlighting the importance of diversity in film. / Center headlines for standalone and embedded interactives / / @import url( nyt5/centered-headline.css ); / / Fullbleed interactive-graphic container / / @import url( nyt5/fullbleed.css ); / / For use with LaziestLoader / / @import url( nyt5/laziestloader.css ); / / Overall interactive / #oscars-2018-navbar .chat-column #g-graphic-ggnavbar border-top: 1px solid #ac8c34; border-bottom: 1px solid #ac8c34; padding-top: 4px; #oscars-2018-navbar .interactive-headline .chat-column #g-graphic-ggnavbar .interactive-headline #oscars-2018-navbar .interactive-leadin .chat-column #g-graphic-ggnavbar .interactive-leadin display: none; .viewport-large-11 #oscars-2018-navbar .viewport-large-11 .chat-column #g-graphic-ggnavbar width: 570px; / Mobile Styles / #oscars-2018-navbar .chat-column #g-graphic-ggnavbar max-width: 300px; margin-top: 15px; 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.viewport-small-20 #oscars-2018-navbar .g-series .g-article .g-headline .viewport-small-20 .chat-column #g-graphic-ggnavbar .g-series .g-article .g-headline margin-bottom: 0; .viewport-small-20 #oscars-2018-navbar .g-series .g-article .g-headline:hover .viewport-small-20 .chat-column #g-graphic-ggnavbar .g-series .g-article .g-headline:hover border-bottom: 2px solid #ac8c34; / Live Chat Specific / .chat-column #g-graphic-ggnavbar width: 90%; min-width: 0; max-width: 520px; margin: 0 auto; box-sizing: border-box; .chat-column #g-graphic-ggnavbar .interactive-box-header width: 100%; .viewport-large .chat-column #g-graphic-ggnavbar .interactive-box-header width: 175px; .chat-column #g-graphic-ggnavbar .g-series width: 100%; padding-left: 1px; margin-top: 0; padding-bottom: 8px; margin-bottom: 0; .viewport-large .chat-column #g-graphic-ggnavbar .g-series width: auto; .chat-column #g-graphic-ggnavbar .g-series .g-article height: 40px; Oscars 2018 What Happened Analysis Red Carpet Winners Photo The Shape of Water won best picture. Credit Patrick T. Fallon for The New York Times Fantasy from del Toro wins top Oscar.LOS ANGELES Guillermo del Toro s The Shape of Water a fantasy about embracing the outcast and giving voice to the voiceless was named best picture at the 90th Academy Awards prevailing over more traditional Oscar movies such as Dunkirk and the rebel outsiders Get Out and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri. Advertisement Continue reading the main story I want to dedicate to every young filmmaker the youth who are showing us how things are done said Mr. del Toro who also won the Oscar for directing. The Shape of Water also won for Alexandre Desplat s score and Paul Denham Austerberry s production design. Continue reading the main story
Hello good evening and welcome to the 90th Academy Awards assumes David Frost voice which are due to get under way in a few hours time in Los Angeles. As we drum our fingers and twiddle our thumbs this is a good time to reflect on what surely is a landmark Oscars after a year of turbulence and sea change in Hollywood: the downfall of Harvey Weinstein the emergence of Times Up and red-carpet blackouts and the thrilling rise of diversity at the multiplex. The consensus is that this year s best picture Oscar has boiled down to a two-horse race between The Shape of Water and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri the former edging ahead despite the latter winning the equivalent award at the Baftas and coming out on top at the Globes. The other headline awards look like they ll be dead certs: the money is on Gary Oldman for Darkest Hour Frances McDormand for Three Billboards and Sam Rockwell and Alison Janney for the supporting actor nods. Shape heads the nominations count with 13 but if the Baftas are anything to go by no one film will sweep the board. Here s the full list to peruse. As usual your hardworking Guardian team will be on the case covering the red carpet the ceremony and the aftermath. Here are a few pointers as to what to look out for some final predictions and a timetable. Timetable After last year s hopelessness the whole thing has been brought forward half an hour. We ll be launching our live blog at 2:30pm PT 5:30pm ET 10.30pm GMT and 9.30am (Monday) AEDT for live coverage from the red carpet rolling news galleries analysis and comment taking in the ceremony which starts at 5pm PT 8pm ET 1am (Monday) GMT and 12noon (Monday) AEDT and the aftermath. Final predictions Guardian writers have been busily analysing the chances of each of the best picture nominees while Stuart Heritage has cast a beady eye over the annual For Your Consideration adverts. The Guardian s chief film critic Peter Bradshaw also has had his say. And here s our final best guess on how it will go down. Best picture The Shape of WaterBest director Guillermo del Toro The Shape of WaterBest actor Gary Oldman Darkest HourBest actress Frances McDormand Three Billboards Outside Ebbing MissouriBest supporting actor Sam Rockwell Three Billboards Outside Ebbing MissouriBest supporting actress Allison Janney I TonyaBest original screenplay Get OutBest adapted screenplay Call Me By Your NameBest documentary Faces PlacesBest original song This Is Me The Greatest ShowmanBest animated feature CocoBest foreign language film A Fantastic Woman What you need to know The Harvey Weinstein scandal still rolling on casts its shadow over these Oscars: not the least because more than anywhere this was his fiefdom. This year he won t be in attendance and as our writer Hadley Freeman points out the Oscars have a chance to change direction. Meanwhile last year s almighty fiasco seems like small beer in comparison but the powers that be are still taking no chances: they have banned backstage tweeting by the officials handing over the winners envelopes. Efforts to make the Oscar voting pool more diverse seem to be slowly paying off with best picture nominations for Get Out Call Me By Your Name and Lady Bird. We heard from some of the Oscar pioneers including Rachel Morrison the first-ever female nominee for cinematography and took a special look at best supporting actress nominee Mary J Blige. The new mood still hasn t stopped some of the nominated films miring themselves in controversy: Three Billboards has been accused of dodgy racial politics Call Me By Your Name of promoting underage sex and Shape of Water film-makers are being sued for plagiarism. One bit of positive news: after vociferous complaints over the exclusion of female directors from the Golden Globe list the Oscars managed to right the wrong by voting Greta Gerwig through in the best director category. To be honest Guillermo del Toro is the nailed-down winner for this one striking (yet another) blow for Mexican film-makers. Nobody s sure what will happen on the red carpet; after the Globe and Bafta blackouts will the Oscars follow suit? The Guardian s fashion team have taken the temperature. Making the best of a bad thing: Warren Beatty and Faye Dunaway are returning to present the best picture award. We trust they ll be a bit more careful this time. Someone who won t be showing up: Kareem Abeed producer of Last Men in Aleppo (nominated for best documentary) who was denied a visa by US authorities. Here s the film s director Feras Fayyad on the hostility his film has provoked. Our music maestro has made his way through the full best song list; read the verdict here. Some Oscar history: the strangest nominations (George Bernard Shaw? Me neither) and the ongoing debate over whether 2004 winner Crash really was the worst ever. Everyone likes a snub too. What happened at the epic class photo picture shoot at the nominees lunch. No one mention the cutout. The Australian and British contenders if that s your thing. The always schadenfreudery rundown of the films that tried but failed to get on the Oscar radar. And finally: the 2018 Oscars in numbers. Oscar numbers 1 Oscar numbers 2 All you need now is your Oscar bingo card. Eyes down! Facebook Twitter Pinterest Illustration: Guardian Design Team Topics Oscars 2018 Film blog Oscars Awards and prizes The Shape of Water Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri Harvey Weinstein blogposts Share on Facebook Share on Twitter Share via Email Share on LinkedIn Share on Pinterest Share on Google Share on WhatsApp Share on Messenger Reuse this content
The most politically charged Oscars in years will be held in Los Angeles on Sunday evening. The ceremony hosted by Jimmy Kimmel will be broadcast in India from 5.30am on Star Movies Star Movies HD and Star Movies Premiere HD and will also be livestreamed on Hotstar.The nine Best Picture nominations include prestige projects (The Post Darkest Hour) and independent and arthouse films (Lady Bird Call Me By Your Name Phantom Thread). The Shape of Water leads the race with 13 nominations followed by Dunkirk with eight and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri with seven.Among the frontrunners for Best Picture is Martin McDonagh s Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri in which a woman seeks justice for her daughter s rape and murder. McDonagh s dark comedy has divided critics because of its depiction of racism in small-town America. An anonymous voter from the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences which organises the Oscars told The Hollywood Reporter that the movie s representation of the American Midwest was false and pretentious and its characters were caricatures.However Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri leads the odds to win Best Picture according to British bookies as well as Las Vegas bookies. Best Actress nominee Frances McDormand who won the Golden Globe for her performance continues to be a favourite with the punters. Play Martin McDonagh on Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri.Another strong favourite for Best Film is Guillermo Del Toro s The Shape of Water an altogether more wholesome affair with no jagged edges to set off a controversy. Set during the Cold War the romantic fantasy drama depicts the relationship between a shy speech-impaired janitor (Sally Hawkins) and an amphibian creature (Doug Jones) who is locked up in a secret American research facility. Del Toro is also a clear favourite to win the Best Director award. Play References and homages in The Shape of Water.Gary Oldman s prosthetic-driven performance as British prime minister Winston Churchill may finally get the actor his first Academy Award. The bookies are favouring Oldman and he has also won the major acting awards so far at the Golden Globes the British Academy of Film and Television Awards and the Screen Actors Guild Awards.Oldman s rivals include 22-year old Timothee Chalamet who has become an overnight star for his performance as a lovelorn teenager in Call Me By Your Name and three-time Academy Award winner Daniel Day-Lewis who plays a designer who gets involved with his model in Paul Thomas Anderson s Phantom Thread. Play Gary Oldman on the makeup routine for Darkest Hour.Cinematographer Roger Deakins who has missed an Academy Award a staggering 13 times in his career has a strong chance of winning one this year. Deakins s sumptuous cinematography is one of the highlights of Denis Villeneuve s futuristic tech-noir Blade Runner 2049. The movie has also been nominated in the Sound Editing Sound Mixing Visual Effects and Production Design categories. Play Roger Deakins on Blade Runner 2049.Christopher Nolan s Dunkirk hit the sweet spot between critical acclaim and commercial glory (it grossed close to 525 million worldwide). Dunkirk is in the running for eight awards including Best Picture and Best Director. Dunkirk depicts the British effort to fight back German forces on the beaches of Dunkirk in Northern France in 1940. The non-linear plot minimal computer graphics and the use of actual World War II-era warships and fighter planes have lent the movie an air of gritty authenticity which has had quite the effect on critics and Nolan s legion of fans. Play The making of Dunkirk.Actress Greta Gerwig s directorial debut Lady Bird with five nominations has also been warmly received by critics. Gerwig is only the fifth woman in the history of the Academy Awards to be nominated in the Best Director category.Saoirse Ronan s performance as a teenager yearning to escape small-town life has earned the 23-year-old actress plaudits. Ronan is to McDormand in the Best Actress race what Timothee Chalamet is to Gary Oldman breakout stars who have been nominated against two thespians at the top of their game. Play Greta Garwig on Lady Bird.Although Paul Thomas Anderson s Phantom Thread is in the running for six Oscars including Best Picture Best Director and Best Actor (Daniel Day-Lewis) the movie s best chances are in the Best Costume Design category. Mark Bridges s clothes play an integral role in a story that is set in the 1950s in the London fashion world. Play The costumes of Phantom Thread.Luca Guadagnino s gay romance Call Me By Your Name is likely to get 89-year-old James Ivory his first Academy Award. Ivory has been nominated in the Best Adapted Screenplay category and he has won four top awards in this category at other events so far including a Writers Guild of America award. Call Me By Your Name the coming-of-age story of a teenager and his love for a much older man is also in the running for other Oscars including Best Actor and Best Song (Sufjan Stevens s Mystery of Love). Play Mystery of Love by Sufjan Stevens.The most American of all the Best Picture nominees is also the most topical. Steven Spielberg s The Post revolves around the efforts of The Washington Post editorial team to publish confidential documents pertaining to the failure of America s war in Vietnam in 1971. The film is in the running for two awards Best Film and Best Actress (Meryl Streep). Play Steven Spielberg Tom Hanks and Meryl Streep on The Post.The outlier of 2018 is comedian Jordan Peele s directorial debut Get Out a horror movie that is also a searing attack on racism. Get Out has strong chances of winning major awards this year at the very least Best Original Screenplay if not Best Film. Play Get Out: A new perspective in horror.No method is full-proof enough to predict the winners on Oscars night. Nate Silver s FiveThirtyEight makes predictions based on how the nominees fared in previous award ceremonies such as the BAFTAs and the Golden Globes. For example over the past 25 seasons the best picture at the BAFTAs won the Oscar 12 out of 25 times making it a fair indicator of which movies are ahead in the race the website s 2018 prediction report notes.FiveThirtyEight predicts wins for The Shape of Water in the Best Picture category with Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri being a strong second favourite Gary Oldman for Best Actor Frances McDormand for Best Actress Guillermo Del Toro for Best Director Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri) for Best Supporting Actor and Alison Janney (I Tonya) for Best Supporting Actress and Coco for Best Animated Feature.The report acknowledges that predicting Best Film this year is particularly difficult as both frontrunners The Shape of Water and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri are popular with different sets of groups. The Shape of Water won the most awards from guilds representing directors producers and editors while Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri has won big in the Golden Globes the BAFTAs and the SAG awards. Image credit: FiveThirtyEight.Image credit: FiveThirtyEight.Image credit: FiveThirtyEight.Image credit: FiveThirtyEight.Meanwhile a report in The Guardian has attempted to predict Oscar winners by looking at for your consideration advertisements. For instance the poster of Call Me By Your Name strongly pushes Ivory s multiple wins in the Best Adapted Screenplay category and features the octogenarian s face. When was the last time a screenwriter s face made it to a film poster?Likewise Dunkirk s for your consideration poster has Nolan in a diving suit in the middle of shooting his visionary epic. Look at Christopher Nolan here splashing around in a wetsuit like some kind of hunk the report observes. That perfect hair. That mysterious stubble. Ostensibly the message is: Behold the struggles Nolan endured to achieve perfection.
It s been touted as one of the most open Academy Awards in recent memory but whoever wins on Sunday we already know who the loser is. The award for worst performing sector of society goes to and no surprises here: white masculinity. This particular demographic has already been identified as the problem with the movie industry in general and the academy in particular in the wake of both #OscarsSoWhite (which campaigned for more representation of people of colour in film) and the current #MeToo/Time s Up movement (against sexual harassment and gender inequality in the industry). Looking at this year s best picture nominees that sentiment appears to have carried through into the movies themselves. Frontrunner The Shape of Water for example is set in cold war America but mirrors the current political zeitgeist uncannily. Its central characters are all marginalised members of society: Sally Hawkins plays a mute cleaner her best friends are an African-American woman and a gay artist and she forms a romantic bond with a humanoid amphibian creature (he s from the Amazon so technically he s a Latino). But it s clear who the real monster of the piece is: Michael Shannon s sour sadistic ramrod-straight FBI agent. He essentially represents the postwar American patriarchy keeping these women and minorities down. Quick guide The 2018 Oscar nominations Show Hide Best picture Call Me by Your Name; Darkest Hour; Dunkirk; Get Out; Lady Bird; Phantom Thread; The Post; The Shape of Water; Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri Best actor Timothée Chalamet Call Me By Your Name; Daniel Day-Lewis Phantom Thread; Daniel Kaluuya Get Out; Gary Oldman Darkest Hour; Denzel Washington Roman J Israel Esq Best actress Sally Hawkins The Shape of Water; Frances McDormand Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri; Margot Robbie I Tonya; Saoirse Ronan Lady Bird; Meryl Streep The Post Best supporting actress Mary J Blige Mudbound; Allison Janney I Tonya; Lesley Manville Phantom Thread; Laurie Metcalf Lady Bird; Octavia Spencer The Shape of Water Best supporting actor Willem Dafoe The Florida Project; Woody Harrelson Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri; Richard Jenkins The Shape of Water; Christopher Plummer All the Money in the World; Sam Rockwell Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri Best director Paul Thomas Anderson Phantom Thread; Guillermo del Toro The Shape of Water; Greta Gerwig Lady Bird; Christopher Nolan Dunkirk; Jordan Peele Get Out Best adapted screenplay Call Me by Your Name; The Disaster Artist; Logan; Molly s Game; Mudbound Best original screenplay The Big Sick; Get Out; Lady Bird; The Shape of Water; Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri Best cinematography Blade Runner 2049; Darkest Hour; Dunkirk; Mudbound; The Shape of Water Was this helpful? Thank you for your feedback. The white male establishment is the enemy across the board this year. In Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri Frances McDormand (the favourite for best actress) wages a one-woman war against her local police department personified by Woody Harrelson and his racist deputy Sam Rockwell. In Get Out Daniel Kaluuya is imperilled by a seemingly respectable white community (of both sexes) that turns out to prey on African Americans with impunity. Call Me By Your Name is a story of white men rejecting heterosexual norms and Lady Bird is a female-centric teen story in which the only significant males are the heroine s two boyfriends (both douchebags to some extent) and her father who is unemployed and battling depression. Most emblematic of all perhaps is Paul Thomas Anderson s Phantom Thread in which Daniel Day-Lewis portrays a 1950s fashion designer. He is the epitome of toxic masculinity: domineering intimidating complacent. He bosses women about he dresses them like dolls he parades them like automatons and he heartlessly discards them once he s done with them. He d make a great movie director. Warren Beatty and Faye Dunaway to present best picture Oscar again Read more Even among the exceptions to the rule the apparent white-male problem is consciously addressed. Steven Spielberg s The Post for example would have been a male-dominated newsroom thriller in decades past (see 1977 Oscar-winner All The President s Men). To bring it up to date the screenplay incorporates a central powerful female character into the story: publisher Katherine Graham played by Meryl Streep. Darkest Hour deploys a similar strategy. The British parliament in the 1940s is the epitome of a white male bastion but Joe Wright s Churchill drama brings two key women into the narrative: his wife Clemmie (played by Kristin Scott Thomas) and his nervous new secretary (Lily James) both of whom provide some human-scale emotion to offset the big politics. That leaves Christopher Nolan s Dunkirk the only best picture nominee with no female or minority roles to speak of though it hardly comes across as a shining advertisement for undiluted white masculinity. Facebook Twitter Pinterest Sally Hawkins and Octavia Spencer both given Oscar nominations for their performances in The Shape of Water. Photograph: Allstar/Fox Searchlight Pictures That these movies reflect current sentiments is unsurprising but they also mirror the academy s own problems with white masculinity. In 2012 a Los Angeles Times investigation revealed that the academy s 5 765 voting members were 94% white and 77% male. Their median age was 62 just 14% of members were under 50 and a sizeable proportion had not worked on a movie in decades. That year the only actors of colour among the nominations were Viola Davis and Octavia Spencer (who won best supporting actress) in The Help. All nine of the nominated best pictures were directed by white men and they took all five best director slots (The Artist was the big winner that year). By 2015 the situation had become untenable: no actors of colour were nominated for the second year running inspiring the #OscarsSoWhite movement boycotts and reams of damaging publicity. In response to this existential threat former academy president Cheryl Boone Isaacs unveiled an ambitious global campaign to identify and recruit qualified new members who represent greater diversity . The academy took in 683 new members in 2016 and a further 774 last year. Of last year s intake 39% were women and 30% were people of colour. In addition voting membership was limited to a 10-year term subject to renewal three times before lifetime membership is granted. Last October in response to the flood of sexual harassment allegations against him the academy also voted to expel Harvey Weinstein the most visible monster of white male privilege. Why Phantom Thread should win the 2018 best picture Oscar Read more It just shows that a very simple act of will by people who can make those decisions can make change happen very quickly says Gaylene Gould head of cinema and events at the British Film Institute. The BFI is initiating its own changes she points out. It has drawn up a set of diversity and inclusion targets for its partners and funding recipients: a 50-50 gender balance 20% from ethnic minority backgrounds 9% LGBTQ and 7% film-makers with a disability. In addition this month British film television and games industries signed up to a set of anti-bullying and harassment guidelines. As from next year British entries to the Bafta film awards will have to comply with them to be eligible for nomination. It s going to be interesting to keep an eye on how that might stir things up and let other voices rise to the surface says Gould. It does feel like interventions need to be made to crack that crust that sits over Hollywood. The academy s new influx has helped fix its image problem and arguably prompted a more diverse spread of nominations this year. But it could also be dividing the institution into two camps: an old guard (mostly older white and male) and a new guard of younger more female and diverse members many of whom have come from technical disciplines. Their ideas of what constitutes Oscar-worthy cinema could differ. Some of the new guard see it as their mission to shake things up and to recognise people and movies that might previously have been overlooked. In turn some of the old guard worry the academy is recruiting too many inexperienced professionals just to beef up its diversity statistics. Facebook Twitter Pinterest Kristin Scott Thomas as Clemmie Churchill and Gary Oldman as Winston Churchill in Joe Wright s film Darkest Hour. Photograph: Allstar/Working Title Films The best picture nominees could be seen to reflect this split. Some movies champion relatively fresh talent and up-to-date establishment-challenging stories: Get Out Lady Bird and Call Me By Your Name. Others are more traditional Oscar fare: serious large-scale historical drama featuring familiar names: The Post gives Meryl Streep her 21st acting nomination. I loved Get Out but it s shocking to me it got nominated says one veteran academy voter (a white male). In decades past he recalls the academy was dominated by actors a sizeable proportion of them senior citizens. So the rumour at least was that a lot of the older folks really didn t care and they turned to their kids and said What did you think was the best film? So we saw a lot of strangeness. But now with the diversification a film like Get Out gets in. A similar old guard/new guard rift could also be detected in the acting categories. Critic Caryn James noted the contrast between showier turns such as Gary Oldman s Churchill and Allison Janney in I Tonya and subtler performances such as those of Timothée Chalamet in Call Me By Your Name Daniel Kaluuya in Get Out or Laurie Metcalf in Lady Bird. We re definitely seeing an influx of new talent says James. The big old-fashioned blustery performances usually win but this year there was room for a little more nuance. It s hard to guess how much of that is because the Academy membership has broadened and how much they ve been kind of embarrassed into it because of things like #OscarsSoWhite. I suspect it s a bit of both. Facebook Twitter Pinterest Lady Bird written and directed by Greta Gerwig and starring Saoirse Ronan and Laurie Metcalf received five Oscar nominations. Photograph: Moviestore/Rex/Shutterstock Tastes don t necessarily skew along old/new lines. An old white male voter says he loved The Shape Of Water but also Lady Bird. A newly recruited 40-something British-Asian voter says I would love to see Gary Oldman win. What a great actor. His performance was excellent. This member was stunned and humbled to be invited to join last year he says and surprised: I was told members were from a selected demographic of people: old white middle-class folk. But in my short experience of being part of the Academy I have met a huge diversity of people who seem to come from all walks of life. I think people need to recognise that it is changing. Even if 2018 goes down as a turning point the battle has not been won. For one thing last year the academy elected a new president to https://www.planet3dnow.de/vbulletin/members/115563-kkclearreplace Boone Isaacs: cinematographer John Bailey a 75-year-old white man. Bailey has expressed his support for the academy s diversity agenda but his election was seen by some as a victory for the more conservative wing of the 54-person board which feels that the board has become too activist in recent years . For another thing the awards have not been handed out yet. The old white male order has by no means been overturned. Gary Oldman is overwhelming favourite for best actor for example and some of those younger contenders will go home empty-handed. As Churchill said this is only the end of the beginning . The Academy s diversity drive of the past two years has only increased the total proportion of female members from 25% to 28% and people of colour from 8% to 13%. In its 90-year history the Academy has still only nominated five women and five people of colour for best director.Real Hollywood change has to happen at a structural level and there s only so much the Oscars can do. But if Lady Bird director Greta Gerwig or Get Out s Jordan Peele picks up a statuette it will send an important signal. And in movies presentation is everything. Topics Oscars 2018 The Observer Baftas Awards and prizes Race issues Women s suffrage features Share on Facebook Share on Twitter Share via Email Share on LinkedIn Share on Pinterest Share on Google Share on WhatsApp Share on Messenger Reuse this content

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